Part 1: Trump, Iran & The Property Market | The Long View with Jon Rose, Adam Lawrence & Roger Martin-Fagg
Part 1 of The Long View Podcast Episode 1. The Full Podcast will be posted on 05 June 2026.
The start of 2026 was looking quietly promising for property investors. Post-budget jitters had settled, a few green shoots were appearing in the market, and there was a cautious sense that things were moving in the right direction. Then came the tariff announcements from Washington – and the mood shifted.
Jon Rose sat down with property investor Adam Lawrence and economist Roger Martin-Fagg to make sense of what’s happening, what it means for the UK property market, and critically, what investors should actually do about it.
The Immediate Impact
Roger was direct about the mechanism. The most significant hit to the UK property market from the tariff turmoil came via the gilt market. The 10-year gilt yield moved by nearly three-quarters of a percent almost overnight – and mortgage products felt it immediately. Rates that had been sitting at a relatively palatable 5.5% with a 2% fee suddenly started with a six.
For HMO investors and anyone planning a near-term purchase, that’s a meaningful shift. Some buyers wobbled. Some paused. And as Jon noted, a pause of three to six months could easily stretch much longer – because there’s little reason to expect rates to fall materially in the short term.
A Market of Two Halves
Adam brought useful ground-level context. Despite the noise, transactions haven’t collapsed. The week of recording had seen the best number of agreed sales in 45 weeks. But supply is elevated – driven largely by small landlords exiting, either selling or retreating to renting again – and the picture varies significantly by region.
The North and Midlands are still moving. London and the South East are softer. On a national level, prices are broadly sideways – and Adam’s best read is that it stays that way for 2026: something like +2 to 3% in the North, -2% or so in the South.
KEY POINT: £500 billion is currently sitting in zero-interest bank balances across the UK. Roger’s view: that’s not saving – that’s fear. And fear-driven inaction is expensive.
When Might This End?
The honest answer: no one knows. Roger’s most specific view centres on a Taiwan/helium/semiconductor pressure point he expects to land around mid-June – which could force a shift in the US position. The upcoming China-US summit is also in the frame. But the pattern of the last 18 months has been consistent: brinkmanship followed by a walk-back.
As Adam put it, there’s a scenario where rates come down – but if that happens, it means something has gone seriously wrong in the wider economy. Rate cuts, in the current context, would be a distress signal. Be careful what you wish for.
What Should Property Investors Actually Do?
The message from all three was consistent: don’t wait for perfect conditions, because perfect conditions may not come – and waiting has its own cost.
The fundamentals that made a deal work before the tariff shock still exist. There’s more supply on the market than there has been in years. Fewer competing buyers means better negotiating positions. If you can make the numbers work today, holding out for a rate that may never come could mean missing a deal that actually stacks.
As Adam summarised it: rates go up, rates go down. A 1% shift here or there shouldn’t make or break a well-structured investment. If you can negotiate 5% better on the way in, that’s where the real money is made.
