Part 9: US Political Uncertainty | The Long View with Jon Rose, Adam Lawrence & Roger Martin-Fagg

Part 9 of The Long View Podcast Episode 1. The Full Podcast will be posted on 05 June 2026.

The mid-term outlook for US politics is shifting. Roger Martin-Fagg’s view is that the Republicans are on course to lose the House in November, with the Senate more uncertain. Adam Lawrence largely agrees – and adds that the longer the current policy environment continues, the more likely a significant political correction becomes.

The more useful question for investors is not who wins or loses, but what the instability itself means for capital allocation decisions – and Adam’s answer was clear. He would not repatriate a business to the US right now. He would not invest in America as a business destination given the tariff environment. The unpredictability around trade policy, the erosion of institutional norms and the uncertainty about what comes next are all factors that make the US a less attractive destination for serious long-term capital.

THE INVESTOR TAKEAWAY: Uncertainty is a cost. When a major economy’s policy direction becomes genuinely unpredictable, capital moves to where it can plan ahead. The UK – despite its own political noise – offers considerably more institutional stability and policy continuity right now than the US.

The one note of longer-term optimism in the conversation: both Roger and Adam expect the post-2028 period to see a meaningful strengthening of US constitutional checks and balances. The system has been stress-tested in ways no one anticipated – and the response, when it comes, is likely to involve closing the gaps that have been exposed. For patient investors, that is a reason to watch rather than write off the US market entirely.

For now, the message is simply this: US political risk is real, it has direct implications for tariffs, trade and global market sentiment, and it deserves to be treated as a live variable in any portfolio or planning conversation.